报告题目：Bayesian area-to-point kriging with expert elicitation of a prior for the point support variogram 

报告人：Gerard B.M. Heuvelink, Department of Environmental Sciences,Wageningen University, the Netherlands 

内容简介：Spatial disaggregation is required when environmental models need input at a finer spatial support than available or when models produce output at a coarser support than desired by end-users. Area-to-point kriging provides an elegant geostatistical solution. It yields ‘mass-preserving’ predictions at point support and also quantifies the associated prediction uncertainty. However, it requires that the point-support variogram is known, which cannot uniquely be derived from only block observations. This is because the effect of the nugget variance vanishes under spatial aggregation. In this work we used expert elicitation to derive informative priors of the point-support variogram parameters. Next block observations were used in a Bayesian update to compute the joint posterior distribution, using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Area-to-point kriging and stochastic simulation were then applied with random sampling from the posterior distribution, thus ensuring that uncertainty about the point-support variogram is represented in the simulations. A case study addressed the spatial disaggregation of a MODIS air temperature image at 5km×5km grid support from 12 a.m. on August 1, 2012, for the Gelderland province, the Netherlands.

报告人简介：

    Gerard Heuvelink 博士是世界土壤信息中心（ISRIC World Soil Information）计量土壤学与数字土壤制图领域的高级研究员，同时也是荷兰Wageningen大学环境科学学院的副教授。他在博士期间就开始从事空间数据不确定性及误差传递模型研究，经过多年的工作现已发表了250余篇关于地统计、空间不确定性分析和计量土壤学的相关论文和著作。论文具有较高引用率，其中多篇论文被评为期刊年度最佳论文。Gerard Heuvelink博士曾在六个欧洲研究项目(如，UNCERSDSS, HarmoniRiB, Intamap, UncertWeb)中担任过主席或成员，同时还是European Journal of Soil Science 和 Spatial Statistics的副主编，Geoderma, Environmental and Ecological Statistics, International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 和 Geographical Analysis等杂志的编委，并在多个与GIS与Spatial accuracy相关的国际会议中出任指导委员会成员。

主持人：葛咏 研究员

报告时间：11月22日上午9:00, 星期五 

报告地点：中科院地理资源所2321会议室